Conviction Market · Solana

Trade conviction.

Someone calls a trade. The crowd puts money behind YES or NO. When time's up, the winners split the losers' pool. A plain-English guide for people who've never touched crypto before.

30%
Caller's tip
2.5×
Early-bird weight
CH.01The Idea

So… what is this?

Ride Markets is a place where someone says "this token is about to moon" — and everyone else gets to back their conviction with money on whether they're right.

Think of it like a conviction market:

  • The thesis is a price call — e.g. "SOL hits $250 in 3 days."
  • Anyone can post their own call.
  • The crowd takes YES or NO on whether it'll happen.
  • When the clock runs out, winners split the losers' money.
“

Someone calls a trade. The crowd decides if it's smart or dumb by putting money behind YES or NO. Whoever's right walks away with the other side's pool.

The thing that makes it different
Unlike Polymarket or Kalshi — where people just predict whether something will happen — a call on Ride tells the fund's treasury to actually place the trade. When the call lands, the treasury profits. The caller takes 30% of that trade profit as their tip, YES voters share 5% as a bonus, and the crowd's position pool settles separately on top. The caller, the crowd, and the fund all win together.
CH.02The Cast

Meet the four characters

The
Caller
The person who makes the call.
They post a trade idea ("BTC hits $75k in 24h") and put up a small deposit called a bond. Making a call puts a real order on the fund's books — so callers aren't just predicting, they're directing the fund's capital. If the trade lands, the caller collects 30% of the trade's profit — the bigger the move they caught, the bigger their cut. Good callers get paid like market-makers.
YES
Backers
People who think the caller is right.
They put money on YES. If the call hits, they split the NO side's money — in proportion to how much and how early they took the position — plus a 5% bonus carved out of the trade's profit for backing the caller's conviction.
NO
Backers
People who think the caller is wrong.
They put money on NO. If the call misses, they split the YES side's money.
The
Fund
The treasury behind every call.
Every call happens inside a themed fund — Speranza Capital, Grind SZN, etc. The fund actually places the trade each call describes. Winning calls grow the treasury. Losing calls shrink it. The fund takes a tiny 1% rake from the losing side only — no subscriptions, no withdrawal fees.
CH.03The Leverage Trick

Why callers can earn outsized returns

Here's the part that makes Ride different from just trading. When you call a trade, you don't risk your whole bag. You stake a tiny bond — and the fund's treasury moves a much bigger position behind your call.

For a typical Grind SZN call, that looks like:

  • You stake an ~$8 bond.
  • The fund's treasury places a ~$130 trade behind your call.
  • That's about 16× leverage — no borrowing, no margin calls, no liquidation.
The key idea
You don't own the trade — you direct it. The fund fronts the capital, you bring the conviction. The bond is the only thing you can lose, no matter how big the position behind your call.

What you actually risk vs. earn

  • Call hits (say the trade pumps 30%) → treasury makes ~$40 → you keep 30% (~$12) on top of your share of the position pool. Roughly 1.5× the bond — and that scales as the treasury grows.
  • Call misses → bond (~$8) is forfeited to the traders who called it wrong. The treasury's trade loss is the treasury's, not yours.
Compared to perps
Same leverage idea, friendlier mechanics: no liquidation price, no funding rate, no maintenance margin. Stake a bond, set a deadline, get leveraged exposure to your conviction. If the call misses, you only lose the bond.

Numbers above are illustrative. Actual leverage depends on the fund's treasury size and bond config — the live ratio is shown on the call page.

CH.04The Loop

How it works — three moves

01
Someone makes a call
They pick a fund, pick a token, type a target price, choose a time window (15 minutes to 14 days). They pay a small bond. The fund's treasury places the trade behind the call — a limit order that fills if price hits, or an instant swap on fast-execution funds. A new market goes live on the homepage.
02
The crowd takes YES or NO
Anyone with a wallet clicks in. A live bar shows the current split — just like an order book. The earlier you commit, the bigger your slice of the pool.
03
Clock hits zero — pool gets paid out
Winners click Claim; the money lands in their wallet. Losers lose their stake. The caller collects 30% of the trade profit. The fund takes 1% of the losing side. Done.
CH.05A Worked Example

Let's walk through one

Mon · 09:00

Alice thinks Bitcoin is about to rally. She opens Ride and makes a call:

“

BTC hits $70,000 within 24 hours.

She puts up a $20 bond. Behind the scenes, the fund's treasury places a limit order to buy BTC at $70,000. Her call goes live.

Mon · 10:00

Bob thinks Alice is nuts. He stakes $100 on NO. Charlie agrees with Alice and stakes $50 on YES. Through the day more people pile in on both sides.

Mon · 20:00

By the evening, the pool looks like this:

YES · 40%60% · NO
$800 · 24 traders31 traders · $1,200

The crowd leans NO — but Charlie's early position still carries a 2.5× weight.

Tue · 09:00
Resolved · YES wins

BTC hit $70k and kept going to $72k. Two settlements happen at once:

The position pool ($1,200 NO side):

  • 1% ($12) to the fund as rake.
  • ~$1,188 split among YES traders by stake size + earliness.

The trade's profit (treasury caught a 2.8% move on ~$10k):

  • 30% (~$86) to Alice on top of her position winnings.
  • 5% (~$14) shared among YES voters as a bonus.
  • ~$186 stays in the fund's treasury.

Bob loses his $100. Alice gets her $20 bond back + her YES position winnings + ~$86 caller's tip. Charlie — who took $50 on YES at 10:00 with the full 2.5× multiplier — roughly doubles his money + a sliver of the YES bonus. The fund took 1% of the losing side AND netted ~$186 on the trade itself.

CH.06The Early-Bird Bonus

Why first movers win bigger

Ride rewards conviction. The sooner you commit, the bigger your reward. If you take a side the moment a call goes live, your money counts as 2.5× for payout purposes. Wait until the last minute and it only counts as 1×. It decays smoothly in between.

Position weight over market lifetimeConviction
2.5×
first window
2.0×
early
1.5×
mid
1.0×
last window
— Market opensMarket closes —
Why bother?
Anyone can jump in at the end once the answer is obvious. The multiplier exists to reward people who put money on the line when it was actually risky.
CH.07The Payout

Two pools. Two settlements.

Here's the trick to understanding payouts: two separate pools settle at the same time. The position pool from the crowd, and the profit from the treasury's actual trade.

Pool #1 — The position pool

The money the YES and NO traders put in. One side wins. The loser's money becomes the pool.

Winners
99%
Split among the winning side by stake size and how early they got in. Earliest stakes can earn up to 2.5× their fair share.
Fund rake
1%
Taken from the losing side only. Flows to the fund treasury.

Pool #2 — The trade profit

If the call worked, the treasury bought low and the position is up. That profit gets split three ways.

Caller's tip
30%
Of the trade's profit. Pay-for-performance — the better the call, the more the caller earns.
YES-vote bonus
5%
Of the trade's profit. Extra upside for the people who backed the caller's conviction.
Treasury
65%
Stays in the fund. The reason winning calls grow the fund's coin over time.

If the trade lost money, there's no profit to split — but the position pool still pays out normally.

Why good callers get rich
The caller's 30% is a percentage of how much the trade profited — not a fixed fee. A flat call pays roughly nothing. A call that catches a 10% move on $100,000 of treasury capital pays the caller ~$3,000. Big moves on big positions pay like a senior trader's bonus. Open to anyone.
CH.08The Coin Engine

Every position feeds the fund's own coin

Here's the trick nobody notices at first glance: each fund has its own coin. Every position happens in that coin.

  • Grind SZN uses GRND.
  • Speranza Capital uses SPC.
  • A new fund for any project would use that project's token.

You can't stake dollars here. You stake in the fund's coin. Period.

What happens when a new trader arrives?

01
They want to take a $50 position on a call
They don't hold the fund's coin — they hold USDC, like most people.
02
The app quietly swaps USDC → fund coin
Jupiter routes the trade. Behind the scenes, someone just bought the coin.
03
They take the position
Now multiply that by every position on every call, all day every day. The platform is a volume machine for the coin.
What it means
  • For the coin: real, organic buy volume. Not wash trading. Not incentive-farming. People actually using the coin because they want to take a position.
  • For holders: every new trader is a new buyer. Every winning call grows the treasury. Losing-side rake flows back to holders.
  • For the fund: a flywheel — more calls → more positions → more volume → more attention → more callers show up.

The unlock: a fund for any coin

The mechanics aren't baked to GRND or SPC. If a project has a coin and a little starting money for the treasury, they can launch their own fund. Suddenly the coin has:

Utility
Currency
It's the only coin accepted in the market. You need it to trade.
Volume
Buyers
Every trader has to buy some. Continuous demand, every day.
Narrative
Alpha
A leaderboard, winning callers, weekly calls people talk about.
The one-line pitch
A trading venue that only accepts your token.
The more popular the venue, the more tokens people need. Any project with a token and a treasury can plug in and instantly get: conviction markets, on-chain trading, and sustained organic buy pressure — for as long as people keep making calls.
CH.09The Usual Worries

“But what if…”

?What if nobody backs my call?

Your bond is forfeited and distributed to the fund's token holders. So don't post calls nobody will care about — or be prepared to pay for the lack of interest.

?What if the price doesn't move at all — is it a tie?

No ties. Either the target was hit by the deadline (YES wins) or it wasn't (NO wins).

?Where is my money while I'm waiting?

On Solana, locked in a smart contract. Nobody at Ride can touch it. When the market resolves, the contract automatically routes funds to the winners' wallets.

?How is this different from gambling?

Ride is a market for opinions about future trades — closer to event derivatives or futures markets than a casino. The fund's treasury actually places the underlying trade on Solana when a call is made, so outcomes resolve on real on-chain price action, not random chance. Same common sense applies as with any market: only stake what you're fine losing. The people winning consistently are doing homework, not chasing streaks.

?What do I need to start?

A Solana wallet (Phantom or Solflare — free, 2 minutes).
A little SOL for transaction fees (a few dollars).
Some USDC to trade with — the app auto-swaps it for you.
CH.10The App

A quick tour

Markets

/
The list of live calls. Each shows the YES/NO split, pool size, and time left. Tabs flip between Active, Resolving, and Complete.

Make a call

/create
The form where you post your own call. Pick a fund, pick a token, set a target, choose a deadline. Submit.

Positions

/positions
Your personal dashboard. Every position you've taken — open, claimable, or closed. One click to collect winnings.

Funds

/funds
Each fund has its own treasury and leaderboard. Drill in to see live calls, volume, and who's winning there.

Leaderboard

/leaderboard
Global ranking sorted by realized profit. A good place to find traders whose calls are worth following.
CH.11One Thing to Remember

If you take away just this…

The whole thing in 3 sentences
Ride Markets is a conviction market for crypto trades.
Someone makes a call: "this will happen." Everyone else puts money on whether it will or won't. When time's up, the winners take the losers' money — with an early-bird bonus for people who took a side before the answer was obvious, and a small tip for the person who made the market interesting in the first place.

Mini-glossary

Call
A trade thesis someone posted — the crowd takes YES or NO and the fund's treasury places the trade behind it.
Caller
The person who created the call.
Bond
Small deposit the caller puts up when opening a market. Returned if the call wins. Forfeited to fund token holders if nobody backs it.
Pool
All the money people have staked on that market so far.
Multiplier
The 2.1× / 1.4× number next to YES and NO. Multiply your stake by that for your payout if you win.
Resolve
When the market ends and a winner is officially declared.
Claim
Clicking "give me my winnings." The contract sends them to your wallet.
Fund
A themed arena with its own token, treasury, and leaderboard.
Conviction
Taking a side early. Rewarded with a multiplier up to 2.5×.
Realms
The on-chain governance platform this app is built on. Think: the stadium.
Explore calls

or make your own call